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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.02 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.18 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model