4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.83 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP