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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 4

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-J.Tolbert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.72 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model