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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 2-J.Fields up the middle to DAL 49 for 2 yards (91-T.Wheat).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.89 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model