4th & Data
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2024-09-29 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 💨 Windy Spread 2.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIN
30.3%
GB
69.7%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.204 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.273 vs Sam Darnold (MIN) +0.110 EPA/dropback (GB starting Jordan Love in place of Malik Willis)
  • GB defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 19
–
GB 26
Projected margin: GB by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

MIN

Ivan Pace LB Out Ankle
Trent Sherfield WR Note Trent Sherfield Sr. did not travel with the team today for personal reasons. He is traveling separately and is expected to be available for Sunday’s game.

GB

Jordan Morgan T Out Shoulder
Carrington Valentine CB Doubtful Ankle
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Quadricep
Jordan Love QB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 31
–
GB 29

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:59 TD MIN (11:59) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Defensive Offside, declined. MIN 6 – GB 0
  • Q1 01:41 TD MIN (1:41) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 84-J.Oliver for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – GB 0
  • Q2 11:54 TD MIN (11:54) 3-J.Addison right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – GB 0
  • Q2 05:32 TD MIN (5:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – GB 0
  • Q2 00:20 TD GB (:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 28 – GB 6
  • Q4 11:42 TD GB (11:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 13-D.Wicks for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 28 – GB 13
  • Q4 10:22 TD GB (10:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 28 – GB 20
  • Q4 06:53 FG MIN (6:53) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 31 – GB 22
  • Q4 01:02 TD GB (1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 13-D.Wicks for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 31 – GB 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 13 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (6:52) 44-B.Narveson 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 18 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 73%

    (8:09) 44-B.Narveson 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:09) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to GB 6, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-21-A.Evans.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 66%

    (2:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 80-B.Melton (7-B.Murphy).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:17) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to GB 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (:50) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to MIN 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 83-J.Nailor MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-80-B.Melton at MIN 3.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (14:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to MIN 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-B.Powell. ** Injury Update: MIN-4-B.Powell has returned to the game.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to MIN 34, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 44 for 10 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 38%

    (6:35) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 71%

    (3:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 13-D.Wicks (1-S.Griffin).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:41) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to GB 11, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (6:53) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:40) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to GB 36, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-K.Nixon to GB 37 for 1 yard (21-A.Evans).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (2:21) 83-J.Nailor left end to GB 4 for no gain (21-E.Stokes).