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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 31

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 44-B.Narveson 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.17 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model