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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 94

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 60 yards to MIN 34, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 44 for 10 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.31 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 94, worth -5.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.82 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model