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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 19

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 44-B.Narveson 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.63 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 19, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.83 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model