Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Green Bay Packers 22

(4:40) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to GB 36, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-K.Nixon to GB 37 for 1 yard (21-A.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.27 EP
56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model