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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 32

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(3:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 13-D.Wicks (1-S.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model