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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 34

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(2:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 80-B.Melton (7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model