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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Minnesota Vikings
4th & 1 at the 4
Minnesota Vikings 31 – Green Bay Packers 22
What Actually Happened
(2:21) 83-J.Nailor left end to GB 4 for no gain (21-E.Stokes).
The Three Options
GO
+2.77 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +4.87 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth -1.11 EP
KICK
+0.94 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.98 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT
-1.02 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
