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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Sunday 2024-09-29 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

KC
58.6%
LAC
41.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): -0.002 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

KC 25
–
LAC 21
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

KC

Michael Danna DE Out Calf

LAC

Joey Bosa DE Out Hip
Junior Colson LB Out Hamstring
Rashawn Slater T Out Pectoral
Joe Alt T Questionable Knee
Derius Davis WR Questionable Hamstring
Ja'Sir Taylor CB Questionable Fibula
Kristian Fulton CB Questionable Knee
Justin Herbert QB Questionable Ankle
Deane Leonard CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 17
–
LAC 10

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:21 TD LAC (6:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-M.Herring]. KC 0 – LAC 6
  • Q1 03:58 FG LAC (3:58) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. KC 0 – LAC 10
  • Q2 04:14 TD KC (4:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. KC 6 – LAC 10
  • Q3 06:30 FG KC (6:30) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 10 – LAC 10
  • Q4 06:08 TD KC (6:08) 34-S.Perine up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – LAC 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 53 yards to LAC 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (14:55) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to KC 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-M.Hardman to KC 35 for 5 yards (20-C.Hart).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:25) 14-M.Araiza punts 50 yards to LAC 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:29) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to KC 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 18 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 36%

    (5:52) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to LAC 2, impetus ends at LAC 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:24) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to KC 48, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-M.Hardman to KC 46 for -2 yards (87-S.Fehoko).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 44%

    (:04) 7-H.Butker 65 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 68%

    (11:51) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%

    (6:30) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (13:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 88-H.Hurst [97-F.Anudike-Uzomah]. Penalty on LAC-62-S.Mustipher, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:31) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to LAC 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:27) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to KC 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-M.Hardman to KC 40 for 12 yards (43-T.Dye).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 15 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:26) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to KC 4, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-87-S.Fehoko.