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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 50

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to LAC 2, impetus ends at LAC 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.73 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model