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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 3

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 88-H.Hurst [97-F.Anudike-Uzomah]. Penalty on LAC-62-S.Mustipher, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 3, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model