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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 53 yards to LAC 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-N.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model