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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 37

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.59 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model