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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.87 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP