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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to KC 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.69 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 85, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 43, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP