Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 84

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(8:27) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to KC 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-M.Hardman to KC 40 for 12 yards (43-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.71 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 84, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model