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New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Thursday 2024-09-19 · 20:15 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

NE
35.9%
NYJ
64.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.200 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.202 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.168 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.147 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 19
–
NYJ 23
Projected margin: NYJ by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NE

Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Out Shoulder
Vederian Lowe T Out Knee
Sidy Sow G Out Ankle
Oshane Ximines LB Out Knee
David Andrews C Questionable Hip
Michael Onwenu T Questionable Wrist
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Shoulder
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Shoulder

NYJ

Jermaine Johnson LB Out Achilles
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 3
–
NYJ 24

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:26 TD NYJ (4:26) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 10-A.Lazard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 08:33 TD NYJ (8:33) 74-O.Fashanu reported in as eligible. 20-B.Hall up the middle to NE 1 for no gain (33-A.Jennings). New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 74-O.Fashanu reported in as eligible. 20-B.Hall up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 04:00 FG NE (4:00) 13-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 3 – NYJ 14
  • Q3 06:24 TD NYJ (6:24) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 5-G.Wilson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 10:19 FG NYJ (10:19) 9-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NE 3 – NYJ 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 50%

    (10:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to NYJ 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 27 for 5 yards (27-M.Dial; 5-J.Peppers).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 11 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 86%

    (4:00) 13-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 84%

    (:11) 9-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 34 for 21 yards (48-J.Tavai).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (10:19) 9-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 17 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (8:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to NYJ 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 9 for -2 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:32) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to NE 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-M.Jones to NE 42 for 8 yards (19-I.Charles; 26-B.Echols).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 32%

    (3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-A.Gibson up the middle to NYJ 45 for 5 yards (94-S.Thomas).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 74%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 22 for 11 yards (4-D.Reed).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

    (:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas to NYJ 7 for 15 yards (22-T.Adams).