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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 79

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to NYJ 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 27 for 5 yards (27-M.Dial; 5-J.Peppers).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model