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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Jets
4th & 10 at the 43
New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(10:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.20 EP
-
28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.06 EP
- 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK
-0.23 EP
- 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
- 50% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT
+0.17 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
