4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 76

New York Jets 24 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to NE 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-M.Jones to NE 42 for 8 yards (19-I.Charles; 26-B.Echols).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.94 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model