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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 33

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 22 for 11 yards (4-D.Reed).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.56 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP