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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 26

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 13-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.76 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model