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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 9

New York Jets 21 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 9-G.Zuerlein 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 9, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP