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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 22

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 3-D.Douglas to NYJ 7 for 15 yards (22-T.Adams).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +3.44 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.53 EP