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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

LAC
49.9%
CAR
50.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.197 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.212 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.307 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

LAC 19
–
CAR 20
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

LAC

Alohi Gilman S Doubtful Knee
Joey Bosa DE Questionable Back
Josh Palmer WR Questionable Knee
Hassan Haskins RB Questionable Toe
Ja'Sir Taylor CB Questionable Fibula

CAR

Raheem Blackshear RB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Johnny Hekker P Questionable Back
Damien Lewis G Questionable Groin
Taylor Moton T Questionable Back
Tommy Tremble TE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 26
–
CAR 3

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:26 TD LAC (9:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 1-Q.Johnston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – CAR 0
  • Q2 04:21 TD LAC (4:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 12 – CAR 0
  • Q2 02:11 TD LAC (2:11) 27-J.Dobbins left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 19 – CAR 0
  • Q3 12:22 FG CAR (12:22) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. LAC 20 – CAR 3
  • Q3 09:07 FG LAC (9:07) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 23 – CAR 3
  • Q4 11:06 FG LAC (11:06) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 26 – CAR 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (7:56) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to LAC 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 43%

    (5:06) 10-J.Hekker punts 28 yards to LAC 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. PENALTY on CAR-32-L.Johnson, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 15.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 23%

    (1:24) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to CAR 13, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to LAC 36, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Davis to CAR 49 for 15 yards (83-D.Moore).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 40%

    (12:54) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:24) 10-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to LAC 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:25) 10-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to LAC 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-83-D.Moore.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (12:22) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 80%

    (9:07) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:39) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to LAC 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to LAC 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 88%

    (11:06) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 5-Dio.Johnson to LAC 48 for 7 yards (26-A.Samuel).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 18 at the 43
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 43%

    (5:59) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to LAC 33 for 10 yards (22-E.Molden).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 20%

    (3:19) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to CAR 6, Center-47-J.Harris. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 19 for 13 yards (33-D.Leonard).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 30-C.Hubbard (44-S.Matlock).