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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 26

What Actually Happened

(9:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 5-Dio.Johnson to LAC 48 for 7 yards (26-A.Samuel).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.82 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model