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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 23

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.48 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model