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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to LAC 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.39 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model