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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 20

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model