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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.27 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP