Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

(7:39) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to LAC 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.15 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model