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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 10-J.Hekker punts 28 yards to LAC 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-D.Davis. PENALTY on CAR-32-L.Johnson, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.06 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model