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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

IND
51.8%
GB
48.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Malik Willis (GB): -0.566 EPA/dropback in prior starts (GB starting Malik Willis in place of Jordan Love)
  • GB offense: +0.199 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 23
–
GB 22
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

IND

Julian Blackmon S Out Shoulder
DeForest Buckner DT Questionable Back
Josh Downs WR Questionable Ankle
Kwity Paye DE Questionable Hamstring

GB

Jordan Love QB Questionable Knee
MarShawn Lloyd RB Questionable Hamstring
Jayden Reed WR Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 10
–
GB 16

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:34 FG GB (10:34) 44-B.Narveson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. IND 0 – GB 3
  • Q1 03:23 TD GB (3:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short right to 13-D.Wicks for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – GB 9
  • Q3 08:29 FG GB (8:29) 44-B.Narveson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. IND 0 – GB 13
  • Q3 04:36 FG IND (4:36) 7-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – GB 13
  • Q4 10:54 FG GB (10:54) 44-B.Narveson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. IND 3 – GB 16
  • Q4 01:53 TD IND (1:53) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 14-A.Pierce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – GB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

    (10:34) 44-B.Narveson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:47) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to GB 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to GB 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-J.Reed MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at GB 16.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%

    (4:15) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to IND 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:24) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short right to 28-J.Taylor.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 89%

    (8:29) 44-B.Narveson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%

    (4:36) 7-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to IND 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 75%

    (14:16) 7-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (10:54) 44-B.Narveson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 85%

    (4:15) 44-B.Narveson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson scrambles left end pushed ob at GB 4 for 11 yards (97-K.Clark). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 48%

    (:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to IND 5, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.