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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 28

Green Bay Packers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 44-B.Narveson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model