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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 16 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 44-B.Narveson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.10 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model