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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson scrambles left end pushed ob at GB 4 for 11 yards (97-K.Clark). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.27 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP