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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.35 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model