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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 16 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to IND 5, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP