Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

(9:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to GB 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-J.Reed MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at GB 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.91 EP
60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model