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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 32

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 7-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.18 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP