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New England Patriots

HC Jerod Mayo
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NE
31.4%
CIN
68.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.241 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.174 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Jacoby Brissett (NE): +0.122 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 19
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NE

Sidy Sow G Out Ankle
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Hip
Joshua Uche LB Questionable Foot
Antonio Gibson RB Questionable Hip
Vederian Lowe T Questionable Abdomen

CIN

Kris Jenkins DT Out Thumb
Amarius Mims T Out Pectoral
Tee Higgins WR Doubtful Hamstring
Ja'Marr Chase WR Questionable Not injury related - resting player

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 16
–
CIN 10

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD NE (15:00) 70-C.Wallace reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – CIN 0
  • Q2 00:02 FG NE (:02) 13-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 10 – CIN 0
  • Q3 11:37 FG NE (11:37) 13-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 13 – CIN 0
  • Q3 01:13 TD CIN (1:13) (Shotgun) 31-Z.Moss right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – CIN 6
  • Q4 08:50 FG NE (8:50) 13-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 16 – CIN 7
  • Q4 06:18 FG CIN (6:18) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. NE 16 – CIN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:55) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:59) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to CIN 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:28) 8-R.Rehkow punts 80 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:48) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to NE 17, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to CIN 26, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 35 for 9 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (:02) 13-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to CIN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 20 for 10 yards (49-J.Cardona). FUMBLES (49-J.Cardona), RECOVERED by NE-21-J.Hawkins at CIN 24.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 94%

    (11:37) 13-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 67%

    (7:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-A.Iosivas to NE 35 for 1 yard (31-J.Jones).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to CIN 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 10 for -1 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 93%

    (8:50) 13-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 74%

    (6:18) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:14) 17-B.Baringer punts 49 yards to CIN 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 10 for 4 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:26) 8-R.Rehkow punts 70 yards to NE 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 10 yards (48-C.Adomitis). PENALTY on CIN, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at NE 25.