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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 17

New England Patriots 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 13-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.00 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP