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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 18

New England Patriots 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 13-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.76 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP