Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 8-R.Rehkow punts 70 yards to NE 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 10 yards (48-C.Adomitis). PENALTY on CIN, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at NE 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.69 EP
53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 85, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model