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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 8-R.Rehkow punts 80 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.00 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 37, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP