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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 82

New England Patriots 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to CIN 26, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-C.Jones to CIN 35 for 9 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.04 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model